Introduction
"Why have import prices been soaring recently?"
"What are the reasons for delays in international shipping?"
The Suez Canal issue has been making headlines around the world. Many people are probably feeling confused, wondering, "What's going on?" and "I'm worried about how this will affect my life."
This blog post will explain in detail the reasons why ships now take a longer route to avoid the Suez Canal (as of 2026), as well as the challenges faced by businesses. While it contains many technical terms, we recommend reading it carefully to understand the context.
What is the "reality" that forces us to avoid the Suez Canal?
**In conclusion, companies around the world have begun to avoid using the Suez Canal and opt for longer routes "for security reasons."**
Core point: The situation in the Middle East and the dramatic changes in shipping routes.
Until 2015, the Suez Canal was a thoroughfare for merchant ships from all over the world. However, the situation changed dramatically due to continued attacks on merchant ships by the Iranian-backed Houthi rebels in the Red Sea.
**The announcement made on March 1, 2016, by A.P. Moller-Maersk, Denmark's largest container shipping company,** that "shipping routes from the Middle East and India to Europe and the US East Coast will use the Cape of Good Hope route off the coast of South Africa instead of the Suez Canal" was shocking.
The actual impact and changes
**What has happened as a result of no longer using the Suez Canal?**
Point 1: A sharp decrease in traffic volume (75 vessels → 40 vessels)
According to an analysis by the International Monetary Fund (IMF), the average daily traffic volume in the Suez Canal before the attack was approximately 75 vessels, but it has now halved to about 40. This is an astonishing rate of decline.
Point 2: Increase in alternative routes (50 vessels → 90 vessels)
**The number of ships choosing the Cape of Good Hope route instead of using the Suez Canal has roughly doubled on average per day.** This simply means that they are "compensating for the volume of traffic through the Suez Canal."
Point 3: The reality of costs and delays caused by route changes
**According to the Japan External Trade Organization (JETRO), the Cape of Good Hope route is more efficient than the Suez Canal route for transportation between Japan and Europe.**
- The number of days at sea will increase by 10 to 15 days.
- Increased costs due to crew recruitment, fuel procurement, insurance, etc.
- Delays are likely due to rough seas caused by bad weather.
**If these factors accumulate, it will lead to increased product prices and delivery delays.**
Point 4: The risks linger longer than before the attack.
**Importantly, even after Israel and Hamas (the armed group in the Gaza Strip) reached a ceasefire agreement,** traffic in the Suez Canal has not recovered. The same is true for the recent end of fighting between the United States and Iran.
Point 5: Challenges in Japan's legal system
Ken Yamanaka, a former Vice Admiral in the Japan Maritime Self-Defense Force and Senior Researcher at Keio University's SFC Research Institute, points out that "Japan does not have a legal system in place to protect merchant ships from armed groups during peacetime." In other words, "even if escort ships are dispatched, there are systemic problems."
Impact on corporate supply chains and future prospects
**What are the potential consequences if this situation continues for an extended period?**
What does "prolonged voyages" mean?
**When ships have to take longer routes, it increases the shortage of ships worldwide and reduces the overall global transport capacity.**
This could lead to rising prices and delivery delays. Insurance company Marcus Baker warns, "Companies need to review and restructure their supply chains."
Prioritizing risk avoidance over cost reduction.
**Companies that once chose the "cheapest route"** now prioritize "safe and reliable routes."
As long as the uncertainty in the Middle East persists, the perception that "the Suez Canal route equals risk" may become firmly established. In other words, the "Regularization of the Cape of Good Hope Route" is also becoming a realistic possibility.
What is expected of companies
**How will logistics costs change, and what should be done with supply chains?** This presents a challenge when making such decisions. Amidst the ongoing uncertainty in the Middle East, accurately assessing risks and costs is crucial.
Summary: Awareness of "invisible challenges" in the workplace
**What can we learn from the issues surrounding the Suez Canal?**
“"In times of change, we cannot move forward while ignoring risks. There will come a time when safety and certainty must be the top priorities."”
Insights from the workplace
- **Prioritize "medium- to long-term risk management" over "short-term cost reduction."**
- ****It is important to have a supply chain that can flexibly respond to changes in the external environment.**
- * ** We must reaffirm that "certainty" is one of the most important competitive advantages.”
The **2015 Suez Canal incident** was not just news; it was a symbolic event that "changed the norms of business."
The future of the Middle East situation remains uncertain. However, a company's survival depends on how it assesses the risks and costs involved.
A perspective on the future
**If the "Cape of Good Hope Route" becomes established, it will mean a transformation of the global logistics system.**
Businesses can no longer rely on their old business models. They need to build new supply chains.
“"In order to survive in an uncertain world, the ability to adapt to change is the most important skill."”
