This morning at my desk Tully's Coffee BARISTA'S BLACK I'm drinking a Barista's Black while reading an article titled "Japanese Hydrogen Stations Are Desolate."
Will a "hydrogen society" truly become a reality? Hydrogen refueling stations have been developed based on the assumption of widespread adoption of fuel cell vehicles (FCVs), but currently, the number of users in Japan is stagnating, and the situation appears to be challenging. Let's take a look at the current state, challenges, and future prospects of hydrogen refueling stations.
Why are hydrogen fueling stations in such a difficult situation?
In Japan, substantial subsidies have been invested in fuel cell vehicles (FCVs) and hydrogen refueling stations have been developed. However, in reality, many of these stations operate with fewer than 10 vehicles per day.
The underlying reason is the slump in FCV sales. The representative model is **Toyota Motor CorporationAlthough there are models like the MIRAI, sales figures have been on a downward trend from their peak. This is partly due to the fact that the driving range of electric vehicles (EVs) has improved, diminishing the advantages of fuel cell vehicles (FCVs).
The Tokyo Metropolitan Government provides subsidies of up to 1 billion yen per site for development, up to 40 million yen per year for operation, and even subsidies for land lease fees. However, the budget continues to be insufficient, and the target number of installations has not been met.
In other words, the situation is that "the supply system is in place, but demand cannot keep up."
The key to success lies in large commercial vehicles.
Amidst this stagnation, the largest domestic company is attempting a strategic shift.Iwatani Corporationis.
The company is shifting its focus from passenger cars to heavy commercial vehicles. The reason is clear.
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Point 1: Hydrogen consumption is on a completely different level.
A passenger car's hydrogen tank holds about 5 kg. In contrast, a fuel cell truck holds more than 10 times that amount. Even with a small number of units, stable demand can be expected. -
Point 2: High utilization rate of large-scale facilities
At stations within truck terminals, there are cases where 25 to 30 vehicles use the service per day. A system focused on commercial vehicles is efficient. -
Point 3: Strengths of supply technology
Iwatani possesses liquefied hydrogen technology. Liquefaction reduces volume, lowering transportation and storage costs. Their sales price is also competitive with other companies.ENEOS**It is considered to be cheaper.
The Tokyo Metropolitan Government is also expanding its introduction of fuel cell buses, so shifting to commercial vehicles can be considered a rational choice.
Reasons why the gap with China is widening
Meanwhile, China is promoting the widespread adoption of fuel cell trucks as a national strategy.China Association of Automobile ManufacturersAccording to reports, sales figures significantly exceed those in Japan.
What's particularly noteworthy is the "breakdown." In China, trucks are central to hydrogen consumption, resulting in a large overall hydrogen consumption structure. The difference is even greater than a simple comparison of the number of vehicles, as it reflects the scale of hydrogen demand.
Japan started with a passenger car-centric approach, resulting in low demand density and poor infrastructure efficiency. Going forward, redesigning the system to prioritize commercial vehicles will be key.
Summary
Japan's hydrogen refueling stations are currently in a transitional phase.
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The adoption rate of FCV passenger cars is stagnating.
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Limitations of subsidy-dependent models
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Strategic shift towards commercial vehicles
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Difference in demand scale with China
Hydrogen is an important option for energy security. However, infrastructure isn't something that's "built and used." I believe that strategic design tailored to the demand structure is essential. In the future, I think whether Japan can transition to a sustainable model centered on commercial vehicles will be a turning point for this country's hydrogen policy.
See you next week.
