Overcoming GPS's weaknesses! The challenges of the US military's next-generation satellites and the challenges facing Japan.

Introduction

In recent years, GPS has become indispensable to our lives, used in smartphones, autonomous driving systems, and more. However, this "GPS (Global Positioning System)There is a major problem lurking in this. The GPS currently in use has been around since the 1970s, and its technology is starting to show its age.

Compared to Europe's "Galileo" and China's "Beidou," its accuracy is poor and its countermeasures against electronic jamming are weak, making it a serious problem in today's international climate. So, how is the U.S. military trying to solve this problem? And what is the significance of this technological innovation involving Japanese companies?

This article will provide a detailed explanation of the weaknesses of GPS, the development status of next-generation systems, and facts that we Japanese should know.

There is a growing sense of crisis that current GPS systems are "unreliable."

Officials within the Department of Defense are said to have serious concerns about the current GPS system. The reason is simple: it uses technology that is more than 20 years old.

The GPS system is very simple. 32 satellites are positioned approximately 22,000 kilometers above the Earth, and radio waves emitted from each satellite are received by receivers on the ground. By receiving these signals and performing simple calculations, any device, from smartphones to military equipment, can determine its current position.

However, this "technology from the 1970s" has a fatal flaw:

① Vulnerable to jamming signals
Enemy countries can suppress GPS signals by emitting strong radio waves. As confirmed on the Ukrainian front, this is a common tactic in modern electronic warfare.

② Insufficient measures against spoofing (false signals)
Attacks can not only simply disable signals but also replace them with false signals. Pilots in the Middle East and around Russia have reported strange phenomena such as "ships appearing to be on land."

③ The accuracy problem of atomic clocks
GPS requires extremely accurate time signals, but slight discrepancies can occur in the atomic clocks on satellites. This can lead to errors in position measurement.

Former U.S. Space Force Commander William Shelton has also pointed out that "Galileo and BeiDou are more resistant to jamming." In response to this problem, the United States is pushing forward with the development of the next-generation GPS IIIF, but development is behind schedule.

Important facts: The NTS-3 satellite, launched aboard SpaceX's Falcon 9 rocket, became the first GPS test satellite in 77 years. This will be incorporated into the design of the next-generation system, which is scheduled to begin operation in 2027.

Innovative measures to be implemented with the NTS-3 satellite

The NTS-3 test satellite incorporates the following technological innovations:

① Concentration of spot beam for M-code (military signal)
While conventional GPS signals spread across the entire Earth's surface, military signals called M-codes are concentrated and transmitted to a narrow area called a "spot beam." This is designed to cover an area slightly smaller than the state of Texas.

The advantage of this technology is that "concentrating the output in a small area makes it difficult to jam." According to Rockall Martin, the manufacturer of GPS IIIF satellites, the new signal can penetrate jamming signals that are about 60 times stronger.

② Watermark signal using the "Chimera" method
This technique involves inserting a secret signal called a "watermark" into the GPS signal at regular intervals. When the receiver receives this signal, it temporarily holds it, waits for subsequent signals, and then compares it with the actual time.

This system allows for verification of whether a signal has arrived after sufficient time has elapsed since it left orbit, and whether it is a false signal transmitted from nearby. This is extremely effective in combating spoofing.

③ Simultaneous operation test of atomic clocks
Conventional satellites are equipped with two backup clocks, but they require a "warm-up period" of several days to start up. NTS-3 will achieve more reliable time synchronization by also conducting tests to run both clocks simultaneously.

Challenges in software development

The development of "OCX," software designed for the operation of next-generation systems, was entrusted to the American aerospace giant Boeing (formerly Raytheon Technologies). However, development has been significantly delayed, and there is a risk of costs more than doubling.

The development costs, initially estimated at $3.7 billion (approximately 570 billion yen), could balloon by the time testing is completed in 2026. This is a classic example of military procurement. "No matter how advanced technology becomes, there are always the same problems with military procurement."

Impact on Japanese companies

Japanese companies collaborating with major defense industry players like Rockhoul Martin are also exploring new opportunities within this trend. Developing next-generation GPS technology requires advanced skills, including precision manufacturing and software control.

The strengths of Japanese companies lie in their "high-quality component supply" and "rapid development capabilities." It is crucial for them to actively consider participating in next-generation satellite projects.

Supplementary information and points to note

Comparison table of GPS systems in various countries

Specific examples of spoofing

According to Victoria Samson of the SecureWorld Foundation, poor spoofing would look like this:

• "The ship will appear as if it's on land."
• "Time appears to be moving in reverse."
• "You can immediately tell when something strange is going to happen."

It has these characteristics. However, it becomes difficult to detect counterfeit items if they are made using advanced technology.

Impact on consumer use

Currently, even in consumer applications such as autonomous agricultural machinery and logistics management, we are heavily reliant on GPS and competing systems. For example:

• Navigation app
• Autonomous agricultural equipment
• Map creation
• Wildlife tracking survey
• Logistics management

All of these services rely on GPS and competing positioning systems. If GPS fails, these services will be completely paralyzed.

Cost issues

OCX softwareThe development costs for the cutting-edge software being developed to operate and control the next-generation GPS satellites (GPS III) could more than double. This is not simply due to technological delays, but also due to the characteristics of the "military procurement process," which differs from that of private companies:

1. Price negotiations are difficult.
There is very little room for price reductions in government-related contracts.

2. Stricter deadlines
The contract has a clear deadline, and delays will result in penalties.

3. Restrictions on technology transfer
Because confidential information is protected, sharing it with other companies is restricted.

Points that Japanese companies should be aware of

• High barriers to entry into the defense industry
  • A long-term project is needed.
  • High technical standards are required.
• Learning opportunities for next-generation GPS technology
  • Keep an eye on test projects such as NTS-3.
  • We are considering the possibility of Japanese companies participating.
• Integration with alternative positioning systems
  • Understanding satellite systems other than GPS is also necessary.
  • Preparation for hybrid operation

Summary

GPS, a technology we take for granted, hides a serious vulnerability. Even Pentagon officials acknowledge that this technology, used since the 1970s, is unreliable in today's international climate. This is not merely a technical issue, but a critical national security concern.

Compared to Europe's Galileo and China's Beidou, the US GPS lags behind in both accuracy and jamming countermeasures. Therefore, the next-generation GPS IIIF, currently under development, incorporates innovative technologies such as spot-beam jamming protection and chimera-type spoofing countermeasures.

However, development itself is not progressing. The development of the OCX software is also significantly behind schedule, and costs could more than double. There are "problems that remain unchanged despite technological advancements" in the military's procurement system.

For Japanese companies, entry into the defense industry and investment in next-generation technologies are essential. Leveraging their high-quality component supply capabilities and development systems, participating in projects like NTS-3 is crucial. Simultaneously, they need to understand positioning systems other than GPS and prepare for hybrid operation.

We tend to focus on convenience, but we must realize that there are serious challenges behind it. To ride the wave of technological innovation, we need to correctly understand the current problems and take appropriate measures. If something as commonplace as GPS has security vulnerabilities, then it is not merely a technical issue, but a serious matter that affects modern society as a whole.