Introduction
"We were able to achieve wage increases of 5% or more again this year." — In recent years, wage increase figures have been a major focus of discussion during the spring labor negotiations.
However, economists warn that focusing solely on the "average wage increase rate" is actually...Consideration for those whose wages have been cut has been neglected.That's what tends to happen.
However, economists warn that focusing solely on the "average wage increase rate" is actually...Consideration for those whose wages have been cut has been neglected.That's what tends to happen.
In this article,Professor Ryu Kanbayashi of Musashi UniversityThis article explains the calculation method for the "reasonable wage increase rate" proposed by [organization name]. We will introduce the "true meaning" of wage increases, which both employers and employees should know in preparation for the 2026 spring wage negotiations.
What is a "reasonable wage increase rate"? It involves considering three factors in a balanced way.
A "reasonable wage increase rate" is not simply based on past performance, such as "sales increased compared to last year, so it should be 3%,""A perspective that looks to the future"It is important to calculate using this method.
According to Professor Kanbayashi, the reasonable wage increase rates are as follows:3 elementsIt is calculated by combining these factors.
| element | Content | point |
|---|---|---|
| inflation rate | Price increase Prospect |
Use the Bank of Japan's forecast (around 21 TP3 T in FY2027) or the survey on the cost of living of labor union members. |
| Labor productivity | Productivity improvement | This factor combines past performance with projected future productivity improvements based on investment plans. |
| Labor share | Corporate profits Worker's share |
To restore the labor share of income, which has been on a downward trend since the 2010s, to its original level. |
By balancing these three factors, we can achieve sustainable wage increases that are not merely about "matching the numbers."
Why is the "average wage increase rate" alone insufficient?
Point 1: The reality of "wage inequality" hidden by averages
Even if the company's average wage increase is 3%, not everyone will see a 3% increase. In reality, some people may see an 8% increase, while others may see less than 1%—these are examples of how things can change.Variability in wage change ratesIt is important to see this.
An analysis of the Ministry of Health, Labour and Welfare's "Basic Survey on Wage Structure" (2020-2023) revealed that the top quarter saw an increase of 2.51 TP3T, while the bottom quarter experienced a decrease of 3.31 TP3T. In other words,Those who have not yet benefited from wage increasesIt exists.
Point 2: A perspective that focuses on the "individual" is necessary.
Up until now, the spring wage negotiations have tended to focus on the "average," but from now on...Real wage change rate for individualsIt is important to understand this. Management can track individual wage trends through the human resources department, and labor unions can also deduce this from union dues collection data.
What is particularly noteworthy is,Middle-aged and seniorThat's right. Starting salaries for new graduates are being raised at a remarkable pace,The mid-career and veteran ranks are likely to remain unchanged.—This balance needs to be re-evaluated.
Point 3: Revival of the cost of living survey
To predict future inflation rates, one method is to use the Bank of Japan's forecast (approximately 21 TP3T for fiscal year 2027),Survey of the cost of living of labor union membersThere is a way to revive it. The latter allows you to consider the wage increase rate after thoroughly understanding the living standards of each employee and the impact of inflation.
The significance of restoring the "labor share of income"
Japan's labor share of income has been on a downward trend since the 2010s. This indicates that companies have been allocating their profits to internal reserves and other forms of compensation rather than wage increases and employee benefits.
Restoring the labor share of income to its original level meansTo make up for past wage increase shortfallsIt also carries implications. Especially in Japan, where seniority-based wages are common, the structure is such that as the population ages, the number of retirees (high wages) increases, and the number of new hires (low wages) increases. Simply keeping the number of workers constant tends to lower the labor share of income.
For companies, viewing this as an "opportunity" to properly return profits to employees helps prevent talent drain and leads to sustainable growth.
Summary
"A reasonable wage increase" is not simply a matter of adding up numbers,Inflation, productivity, and distribution rateThe key is to combine these three perspectives in a balanced way, and also to pay attention to wage changes at the individual level. In the 2026 spring wage negotiations, we want to aim for a "whole-optimal" wage increase that benefits not only young workers but also middle-aged and senior workers.
link
