Introduction
Nikkei AverageIt continues to reach new record highs. Also, rising wages and inflationJapan's GNPIt is predicted that this will be the highest birth rate ever. However, considering Japan's declining birthrate, I think that for many people, the future of Japan, and their own, is a matter of immediate concern. Economic inequality, the environment that makes it difficult for young people to marry and the burden of childcare, and the reduction of social security for the elderly are all issues that society as a whole faces, and these issues are highlighted from this perspective.
But why haven't the government's measures so far been effective? This article delves into the truth behind the population decline problem and explains how Japan will change in the future.
Our aim is to explain complex issues in an easy-to-understand way from an expert's perspective, so that readers will feel a sense of understanding and satisfaction after finishing the book.
Why were the government's measures to combat the declining birthrate ineffective? Three fundamental flaws.
There were three main problems with Japan's measures to address the declining birthrate up to now. These were not merely "failures," but structural flaws.
Flaw 1: A government without a central command structure
The government lacked an organization well-versed in population issues. For about 50 years, not even a white paper on population issues had been compiled. Because each ministry handled the issue independently, unified policy management was impossible.
The chairman of the "Conference to Choose the Future," Mr. Mimura, stated the following:
"The government should be taking this seriously, but the problem is that it's not organized."
This wasn't simply a matter of poor wording. The truth was that the government's ability to respond to the major social issue of the declining birthrate had not kept pace.
Flaw 2: The voices of women and young people are not being heard.
Many regions still retain the traditional gender role division where "men work, women stay at home." There has been a lack of consideration for reflecting the voices of women, who bear the disproportionate burden of childcare, in policy-making.
- In addition to support for families with children, measures are also needed for single people and those without children.
- To increase the employment rate of women, it is essential to develop flexible working arrangements.
- Policy recommendations are needed that respond to the changing attitudes of young people.
Flaw 3: A "competition" structure between local governments
While local governments were working on measures to counter population decline in preparation for the disappearance of rural areas, the result was that neighboring municipalities ended up simply competing for migrants. If competition persists rather than collaboration, overall optimization becomes difficult.
This problem is not simply a matter of policy design; it requires a fundamental re-examination of the very structure of society.
How to overcome the challenges of a declining population! Three new solutions
So, what measures will be needed going forward? Experts have put forward the following new recommendations.
Solution 1: Establishment of a Headquarters for Population Decline Countermeasures
The coalition agreement between the Liberal Democratic Party and the Japan Innovation Party includes the statement:Headquarters for Countermeasures against Population DeclineThe establishment of "[ ]" was explicitly stated. This signifies the creation of a powerful command and control organization.
- Effective resource allocation through centralized management
- Achieving a sense of policy unity
- Strengthening cooperation among local governments
Solution 2: Realizing a society where both parents work and raise children together.
The "Conference for Choosing the Future" proposes creating a society where both parents can work and raise children. This includes the following elements:
- Promoting men's participation in childcare
- Flexible working hours
- Support team for activities in rural areas
Solution 3: Introduction of a refundable tax credit.
Unlike the previous expansion of child allowances, effective support measures are needed for a wide range of recipients. The "refundable tax credit" being debated between the ruling and opposition parties has the following characteristics:
| Features | explanation |
| Scope | Suitable for both single people and families with children. |
| structure | Income-based benefits |
| effect | Effective as a social policy, not just as a measure against inflation. |
Although this system was originally positioned as a measure to combat inflation, it is in reality a very effective tool from the perspective of child policy and social policy.
How will Japan change in the future, as seen through data and expert opinions?
Based on recommendations from the Population Strategy Council and other forums, I will summarize some key points about how Japan will change in the future.
Trends in birth rates
The total fertility rate has remained around 1.3. It has been on a downward trend since its peak in 2005. If this trend continues:
- Further decline in the labor force
- Concerns about the sustainability of the social security system
- Difficulty in the operation of local governments
Activities of the "Conference for Choosing the Future"
The new organization has set the following priorities:
- A specialized team will be established to gather the concerns of the younger generation.
- Strengthening policy recommendations by women
- Preparation of the White Paper on Population Issues (annually)
- Exchange with South Korean organizations working to combat the declining birthrate
These are not merely advisory organizations, but rather movements toward structural reform of society as a whole.
Key number: Last chance
The government has positioned 2030 as "the last chance to reverse the declining birthrate." To date, approximately 3.6 trillion yen worth of measures have been implemented by the national and local governments combined.
Summary
Japan's population decline is not simply a matter of numbers. It is a major challenge that necessitates a fundamental reassessment of the very structure of society.
Until now, the government has operated with each ministry acting independently, lacking a central command. The voices of women and young people were not reflected in policy, and competition took precedence over cooperation between local governments. These structural flaws have led to an acceleration of the declining birthrate.
However, there is also hope."Meeting to Choose the Future"The unified response system under the new organization is the first step toward change. Specific proposals such as the creation of a refundable tax credit system and the realization of a dual-income society also indicate a direction that society as a whole should address.
The important thing is to view population issues not as "someone else's problem" but as "our own problem." A sustainable society cannot be achieved unless all stakeholders—young people, women, the elderly, businesses, and local governments—actively participate.
We should not miss this opportunity to see what Japan will become in the future. It's time for each of us to consider how we can contribute to addressing the major challenge of the declining birthrate.
