Outside the window, there's a large cherry tree in full bloom. Looking at the cherry blossoms makes me feel like something new is about to begin, and I feel a little restless. It's just my usual canned coffee, but today it tastes a little fresher.
I came across something that caught my attention before starting work.
The combined valuation of 10 AI startups that have not yet generated profits is approaching $1 trillion, or approximately 150 trillion yen.。Open AIやAnthologyNames like Elon Musk's xAI are listed, but their valuations have been re-evaluated multiple times in the past year.。
These numbers sound a little far removed from reality, don't they? Let's take a look at why.
What lies behind the frenzy
Even the venture capital (VC) firms that are investing seem to be admitting that "it's definitely a bubble right now." However, it seems the scale is completely different from the dot-com bubble of the past.
Investment in internet companies around 2000 was worth approximately $20 billion in today's value, but it is projected to exceed $200 billion in AI-related investments alone by 2025. 。
actual,A sense of "FOMO" (fear of being left behind) is swirling around the scene, and the stagnant mood of the past few months has quickly transformed into enthusiasm. Sometimes, young companies that generate only small profits can be valued at more than 100 times their actual value. It's a situation that would normally be hard to imagine, but apparently, funds are continuing to flow in as an "exception." 。
Why is it worth "150 trillion yen"?
The reason why such a massive amount of money is being moved seems to be rooted in the following three factors.
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Expectations for AGI (Artificial General Intelligence)The idea is that if AI capable of performing all tasks at a human level becomes a reality, then current investments will become worthless. 。
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The emergence of a winner like a "black hole"They foresee a future where, like Google and Meta in the past, a handful of companies will dominate the majority of the market and swallow up the rest. 。
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Close ties with the open marketGiant tech companies like Nvidia and Microsoft are deeply partnering with these startups, and this is no longer just a problem for privately held companies. 。
This frenzy wasn't just a simple investment game; it was part of a highly capital-intensive struggle to determine who would set the "standard" for the next era.
How does this affect our "sense of work"?
When we look at these big developments, our daily work might seem a little small. But Salesforce CEO Marc Benioff said this:
"Throw as many things as you can against the wall and see which ones stick."
Corporate accounting includes the concept of "going concern." This is a fundamental accounting assumption that a company will continue its business indefinitely into the future.
Looking at the bubble from this perspective,Ultimately, a bubble might be nothing more than a massive ball of energy, a force to forcibly create "something new." While many sacrifices and wastes are inevitable, it's from within that process that sustainable businesses that change the world emerge. It might be a koto (Japanese zither).
I think our small "experiments," such as incorporating new tools into our daily work or tinkering with prompts, are also part of this larger wave. What's important isn't getting swept up in the enthusiasm, but rather having the composure to discern "what" of the things being thrown at us actually fits into our own work.
Summary
The sheer weight of the figure 150 trillion yen is astonishing, but I think it also reflects the enormous expectations placed on the future.
Ultimately, whether a technology becomes "real" depends on whether people truly believe that the investment will generate value. The fact that the enthusiasm of people betting on an uncertain future is what drives the economy today is somehow very human and fascinating.
Well, I've finished my coffee. While I'm still keeping an eye on the bubble's trajectory, I'll focus on the task at hand for today.
See you tomorrow.
